Global demand growth for oil is expected to slow from its five-year high in 2016 as previous price support is projected to wane.
According to the IEA’s October Oil Market Report, demand growth is expected to slow from 1.8 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2015 to 1.2 mb/d in 2016.
World oil supply held stready near 96.6 mb/d in September, as lower non-OPEC production was offset by a slight increase in OPEC crude.
OPEC crude supply rose by 900,000 barrels per day in September to 31.72 mb/d as record Iraqi output more than offset a dip in Saudi supply. A slowdown in forecast demand growth and slightly higher non-OPEC supply lowers the 2016 ‘call’ on OPEC by 0.2 mb/d from September.
The onset of seasonal turnarounds in the OECD and the Former Soviet Union is estimated to have curbed global refinery runs by 1.9 mb/d in September to 79.4 mb/d. Runs remained remarkably strong, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, leaving global throughputs up nearly 2 mb/d from a year ago.