Gasoil storage inventories in the ARA have reached the highest recorded level in three years.
Inventories increased by 345,077 MT to 6.023 million MT in the second week of September 2015 according to Genscape. On September 2, 2015, the ARA terminal utilised 71.9% of the gasoil storage capacity there, the highest utilised capacity in Genscape’s history.
ARA gasoil storage levels have increased 21 of the last 25 weeks and gained 2.611 million MT since March 13, 2015.
According to Genscape, the stock increase is partly due to a seasonal trend during the summer, when market participants store more in preparation for the colder winter months.
A similar pattern was observed at the beginning in April 2014, with storage building 1.98 million MT over a six month period.
However, stocks began building a month early in 2015 and it is expected that they will continue to rise in the coming weeks. In fact, it is anticipated that gasoil storage levels could increase to more than 230,000 MT in the next two weeks according to data shipping analysis by Genscape.
In addition to the seasonal effected, the rise in inventories is also partly attributed to the falling crude prices and the current Brent contango structure. Refinery margins are at a healthy level thanks to low crude prices, which incentivises refiners to increase production.
The rise in gasoil consumption has not been able to keep pace with ever-growing production, thus resulting in an oversupply and high storage inventory levels.
Data
Of the 657 tanks monitored by Genscape, only 60 of the 600 operational tanks (which represents 10%) are utilising less than 15% of their capacity.
Only 52 are using less than 10% of capacity.
A total of 316 active tanks (more than 50%) are utilising 85% or greater of their capacity, compared to 259 of the operational tanks (48%) at that level on October 3, 2013.
