The Port of Rotterdam Authority is drafting its Port Vision 2030 where it sees a throughput rise of up to 320 million tonnes in the next 20 years.
The Port of Rotterdam Authority has calculated that throughput could rise from approximately 420 million tonnes to around 575-740 million tonnes in 2030.
On the basis of three different economic scenarios, the Port Authority has made so-called potential estimates for goods throughput in the coming decades. They form the basis for the Port Vision 2030.
In all of the scenarios containers are the biggest growth sector. Raw materials show limited growth or even a decline, while semi-manufactured products, like mineral oil products and steel, are set to increase.
In addition, developments in the energy field have a big influence on throughput volumes. In the most sustainable scenario, for example, the transshipment of biomass and LNG increases sharply, while crude oil throughput falls.
The Port Vision 2030 is meant to serve as a pointer for the further development of the port, Hans Smits, Port Authority CEO, comments. Rotterdams port and industrial complex is one of the strongest clusters in our national economy. The Port Vision 2030 is therefore of national importance.
In the next half year, we will be looking to talk with stakeholders, clients and authorities and expect to complete the vision by summer 2011.
The Port Authority used economic scenarios from the Central Planning Office (CPB) and EU to get a picture of the opportunities and threats for the development of the port.
The scenarios are based, respectively, on existing policy and moderate economic growth (European Trend scenario); further globalisation combined with a low oil price, leading to high economic growth (global economy scenario); and a high oil price, a strict environmental policy, moderate economic growth and a relatively rapid shift to sustainability by industry and logistics (high oil price scenario).
If environmental regulations become more stringent and oil more expensive, then steel production in Europe falls (less CO2 emissions in Europe, less imported iron ore, more imported steel), for instance, and a number of refineries in Europe close down.
At the same time, more oil products are then imported and a larger percentage of our energy needs is met by renewable sources.