Hurricane Florence is likely to disrupt national gas production, delay pipeline construction and reduce refined product supply to the Northeast.
The category 4 hurricane, which is expected to make landfall late Thursday (September 13), will bring strong winds, heavy rains and flooding to the US East Coast.
According to S&P Global Platts, the eye of the storm is likely to pass through the North Carolina coast early Friday morning with wind speeds of more than 110 MPH. Its four to five day track extends as far south as Georgia and to near the northern tip of Virginia.
Coastal inland flooding is expected following up to 15 inches of rainfall.
Platts says that in terms of oil trade flows, small volumes of petrol blendstocks, diesel and asphalt are imported into North and South Carolina, which could be affected by the storm.
However, no offshore or onshore oil production facilities or oil refineries are currently in the path of the storm. Operators of the Colonial Pipeline and Plantation Pipeline, which the Northeast is heavily dependent on for refined products supplies, are closely monitoring the storm.
Wilmington and Charleston ports are also preparing for the storm, with condition Zulu expected later today.
The storm could also disrupt operations at the two LNG export terminals on the East Coast and Dominion Energy, which owns the Cove Point in Maryland, terminal has activated its severe weather preparation and response plan.
Enterprise Products Partners is increasing loading capacity for LPG products at its hydrocarbon terminal on the Houston Ship Channel.
Construction work is underway to increase loading capacity for primarily propane and butane by 175,000 barrels per day, or five million barrels per month.
The expansion will bring total LPG export capacity at the terminal to 720,000 barrels per day, or approximately 21 million barrels per month.
Once complete, Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal will have the capability to load as many as six very large gas carrier vessels simultaneously, while maintaining the option to switch between propane and butane loadings.
Once operation, the expansion will allow the terminal to load a single VLGC in less than 24 hours, creating greater efficiencies and cost savings for customers. The incremental capacity is expected to be available in the second half of 2019.
A.J. 'Jim' Teague, CEO of Enterprise's general partner, says: 'Enterprise is already the largest exporter of propane in the world and this expansion project will increase our ability to export LPGs from the terminal facility by another 30% with nominal capital investment.
'Domestic production of hydrocarbons continues to exceed expectations and US demand. US LPG production currently exceeds US demand by over one million barrels per day and the domestic export terminals are approaching full utilisation.
'We estimate that US LPG production could increase by up to an additional 1.5 million barrels per day by 2025. Without access to international markets, excess LPG supplies would lead to a curtailment in the US crude oil and natural gas production growth.
'Marine terminal expansions like our will be essential to balancing the market and meeting growing global demand for US hydrocarbons.'
ExxonMobil has signed a cooperation framework agreement with the Guangdong Provincial People's Government to evaluate the construction of a chemical complex in China.
The proposed complex in the Huizhou Dayawan Petrochemical Industrial Park would help meet expected demand growth for chemical products in China.
The multibillion-dollar project, which is subject to a final investment decision, would include a 1.2 million-tonnes-per-year ethylene flexible feed steam cracker, two performance polyethylene lines and two differentiated performance polypropylene lines.
The new complex would support progress toward China's national petrochemical development priorities. The framework agreement also confirms Guangdong Province's support in progressing the Huizhou LNG receiving terminal, in which ExxonMobil intends to participate, including supply of LNG.
Startup is planned for 2023.
ExxonMobil is also evaluating other chemicals manufacturing projects in Asia to help meet expected demand growth in the region. The company expects to grow chemicals manufacturing capacity in the Asia Pacific and North America by 40%, which will be achieved in part by adding 13 new facilities.
Sharul Rashid, principle engineer, instrument and control at Petronas explains how he implemented a structured approach to process safety within the company
The lack of a structured approach to process safety can have potentially catastrophic consequences. You only need to look at the Buncefield incident in 2005 and the Caribbean Petroleum Terminal facility explosion in 2009 to appreciate how devastating these consequences can be.
Mindful of these incidents and keen to ensure that these did not occur at Petronas now or in the future, Sharul Rashid, principle engineer, instrument and control, and other executives implemented a series of measures to ensure that the company had a structured and focused approach to functional safety.
Previously, the company was governed by its HSEMS Safety Technical standard, and no specific standard existed to govern process safety.
In an interview with Tank Storage Magazine Rashid explains: ‘From 1971 to 1996 there were 28 process safety incidences. From 1998 there were cases of history repeating itself, with the Buncefield incident in England in December 2005 and just four years later with the CAPECO explosion.
‘Both were due to common issues – a failure in the overfill protection system – which forms part of the important Safety Instrumented Function (SIF). In this respect, our company cannot afford to have a similar incident now or in the future.’
Rashid explains that executives at Petronas focused on a top down approach to ensure compliance with a focus on functional safety.
‘I ensure that Petronas complies with the IEC61511 Functional Safety Management standard, which is the primary reference for the company’s technical standard for functional safety management.
‘With the established SIF framework and Safety Integrity Level (SIL) Study roadmap for Petronas in place, the company has eliminated the possible dangerous failure on demand. This has been reflected in saving of $100,000 to more than $10 million, depending on the severity of the impact on people’s safety, the environment and production loss.’
Rashid will be speaking more about process safety compliance and a structured approach to managing the safeguard layer in compliance with the IEC61511 standard on the second day of the Tank Storage Asia conference at the Marina Bay Sands, Singapore on September 26 - 27. For more information, visit www.tankstorageasia.com.
RWE and German LNG Terminal have reached an agreement for a substantial amount of capacity at the Brunsbüttel terminal.
This follows a successful open season for the LNG import and small-scale terminal, which will have a total capacity of five billion m3. RWE, one of Europe's leading energy companies, has signed a contract that guarantees RWE access to substantial annual capacity.
Andree Stracke, CCO gas supply & origination of RWE Supply & Trading, says: 'We believe that together with Germany LNG Terminal we can fully develop a significant business around the terminal delivering LNG and gas to our customers in Germany and throughout Europe.
'LNG remains a key growth area for RWE: this agreement will enable us to continue growing our portfolio and provide us with additional flexibility to take advantage of new opportunities as they present themselves in the global LNG market.'
Ulco Vermeulen (member of executive board, N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie), Daan Vos (managing director, Oiltanking) and Kees van Seventer (president, Vopak LNG Holding) said in a joint statement: 'This is an important step in the commercial development of the terminal as a significant part of the terminal's capacity has now been committed. It clearly demonstrates that the market is committed to Germany's first LNG terminal and is convinced of its business model as a multi-service terminal, independent ownership and open access.'
Negotiations with other interested parties are ongoing. The final investment decision for the facility is expected by late 2019 and construction work will then start in 2020 with the terminal being fully operational by the end of 2022.
Oil products stocks in Fujairah rose 8.2% week on week, rebounding from a five-month low as inventories of light, middle and heavy distillates all increased.
Total oil stocks stood at 17.484 million barrels in the week ending Monday, September 2, up 1.328 million barrels from a week earlier, according to the Fujairah Energy Data Committee.The biggest increase came from middle distillates stocks, which jumped by 15.8% to hit 4.09 million barrels, the highest level in more than a year.
Traders in the region described the gasoil market as balanced, and pegged 10 ppm sulfur gasoil at just under $1/b. The Middle East jet fuel spot market was better supported, however, due to increased regional buying interest, and continued flows to Northwest Europe, S&P Global Platts Analytics said in a report Wednesday. One source from a Middle East refiner also noted that the arbitrage window to the West of Suez had reopened last week due to a weaker prompt Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) spread. The EFS was assessed at a seven-week low of minus $8.24/b Tuesday which indicated improved arbitrage economics, Platts Analytics said.
Stocks of light distillates rose 12.6% to 5.885 million barrels – a six-week high. The petrol market saw a boost in activity on the back of fresh tenders from Indonesia and Kuwait, where state-owned KPC sought 25,000 mt of RON 91 and 25,000 mt of RON 95 gasoline via tender.
'Currently the market is pretty tight, starting from the [Middle East] there are refinery issues so they are pulling a lot barrels from the East, and China exports are at a low,' a trader said, adding that Medium Range and Long Range tankers were being chartered to move cargoes to the Arab Gulf.
Meanwhile, stocks of heavy distillates and residues edged up by 1.5% to 7.509 million barrels. In Fujairah, tight cargo supply continued to keep bunker premiums at elevated levels. Delivered 380 CST bunker prices in Fujairah were assessed at $14.50/mt above Singapore Tuesday - the widest premium in four months - while delivered premiums over ex-wharf bunkers were at $20/mt.
EagleClaw Midstream will acquire Caprock Midstream Holdings for $950 million, which includes pipeline and storage assets.
Caprock provides gathering, processing and disposal services for natural gas, crude oil and produced water to producers in the Delaware Basin. It operates two natural gas processing facilities and will have 540 MMcf/d of processing capacity for the completion of two additional facilities currently under construction.
It operates 300 miles of gas, crude, natural gas liquids and water gathering pipeline and 23 million barrels of crude storage, which is expected to grow to more than 60 million barrels within the next 12 months.
The acquisition of Caprock is complementary to EagleClaw and further solidifies the company's position as the midstream partner of choice for producers in the Delaware Basin.
Once the acquisition is closed, EagleClaw will operate close to 850 miles of natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude and water gathering pipelines, 1.3 billion cubic feet per day of processing capacity and crude and water storage facilities, with more than 425,000 acres under long-term dedication for midstream services.
The acquisition will expand EagleClaw into crude and water-related services, providing opportunities for the company to offer a broad suite of midstream services to both existing and new customers.
The existing Caprock operating company will be renamed EagleClaw Midstream II.
Jamie Welch, EagleClaw's president and CEO, says: 'Following our recent announcement of the Permian Highway Pipeline in partnership with Kinder Morgan, the acquisition of Caprock is another exciting chapter in the continued growth story of EagleClaw.
'This transaction expands our business in every aspect, from asset footprint, to customer diversity, to breadth of service offering, while remaining true to EagleClaw's core mission of providing customer-focused midstream services in the Permian Basin.'
Island Energy Services is shifting its strategic focus to logistics and retail operations in Hawaii and is selling some refinery assets to Par Pacific Holdings.
Par intends to utilise the acquired assets for continued refining operations to supply fuel to IES, which will allow IES to fulfil certain utility fuel supply contracts in Hawaii.
IES, a Hawaii based fuels market and logistics business, has agreed to enter into a long-term agreement with Par to provide fuel storage and throughput services.
IES plans to continue to source petroleum products from its current network of local and global suppliers and does not expect any disruption to Hawaii's supply of petroleum products as a result of this transaction.
It also expects to reinvest net sale proceeds in Hawaii to further expand its logistics infrastructure, which includes a network of tank terminals, pipelines and other distribution assets.
The company says these planned investments are intended to ensure IES remains well-positioned as a long-term valued suppler of fuel products in Hawaii. It also plans to expand its retain operations.
IES CEO Jon Mauer says: 'This shift in operations better positions IES as an integrated logistics provider, anchored by our large-sale Kapolei import terminal. We look forward to maintaining our role as a trusted local fuel supplier for the state as we respond to changing market conditions, industry regulations and Hawaii's long-term energy mandate.'
Flint Hills Resources plans to expand storage and outbound crude loading capacity at its storage terminal in Ingleside, Texas to 300,000 barrels per day.
The work will comprise four new crude storage tanks, 60,000 barrels per hour of total loading capacity, plus the associated pumps and piping.
It is expected to be complete by October 2019 subject to state permitting approvals. Once complete, Ingleside will have a total crude storage capacity of 3.5 to 4.0 million barrels.
The Ingleside terminal currently utilises two docks, including one that supports the loading of Suezmax-size vessels. The company says it is evaluating a separate project that would allow it to load VLCC vessels in the future.
In addition to the expansion, the company also plans to build connections to the recently announced crude pipelines coming from the Permian Basin.
Energy Transfer Partners, Magellan Midstream Partners and Delek US Holdings have confirmed they have received sufficient commitments to build a new crude oil pipeline.
The 30-inch diameter common carrier pipeline will transport crude oil from the Permian Basin to the Texas Gulf Coast region and the diameter can be increased to expand the capacity based on additional commitments received during the upcoming open season.
The 600-mile pipeline system is expected to be operational in mid-2020 with multiple Texas origins, including Wink, Crane and Midland. The pipeline system will have the strategic capability to transport crude oil to both Energy Transfer's Nederland, Texas terminal and Magellan's East Houston, Texas terminal for ultimate delivery through their respective distribution systems.
Puma Energy has reported an increase in sales volumes and turnover for the first half of 2018 despite challenging markets.
The midstream and downstream energy company reported an increase of 11% in sales volumes to 12.1 million m3 compared to the same period in 2017. This increase as in all regions with good performance in the retail, wholesale and bitumen segments.
However, its EBITDA decreased to $288 million compared to £375 in the first quarter of 2017.
During the period, the company added 10 new retail sites, started operations at three additional airports in Mozambique and South Africa and finalised the construction of a storage terminal in Panama.
CFO Denis Chazarain says: 'The headwinds we anticipated earlier in the year impacted the second quarter as expected, resulting in a lower year on year profit.
'Despite challenging external political factors and foreign currency effects, our sales volumes continued to rise across our operating regions, which, combined with the higher oil price contributed to the 24% rise in revenues to $8.6 billion for the period versus last year.
'Additionally, operating cash flows increased during the first half of 2018, compared to the previous year, reflecting strong cash conversion and effective working capital management.'
Oiltanking Singapore Chemical Storage has signed a long-term storage agreement with Shell Eastern Petroleum for additional propylene storage.
The Oiltanking and Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets joint venture has an existing C3 system in place for Shell and the new addition of two propylene bullet tanks will complement and strengthen the strategic partnership between Shell and the company.
By securing this new expansion for propylene, a key feedstock for Jurong Island, Oiltanking Singapore Chemical further anchors its position as a key chemical/propylene hub and integrated logistics and service provider for feedstock.
With these new bullet tanks, the terminal will have total capacity of 409,000 m3 spread across 84 tanks.
The Federal Court of Appeal has overturned a decision by Canada's National Energy Board to approve the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
In a unanimous decision, a panel of three judges said that the National Energy Board wrongly narrowed its review of the project to exclude related tanker traffic. Additionally, the court also ruled that the federal government failed to adequately consult First Nations, as required by law.
The decision states: 'The board made one critical error. The board unjustifiably defined the scope of the project under review not to include project-related tanker traffic. This unjustified exclusion of marine shipping from the scope of the project led to successive, unacceptable deficiencies in the board's report and recommendations.
It continued: 'Canada failed in Phase III to engage, dialogue meaningfully and grapple with the real concerns of the indigenous applicants so as to explore possible accommodation of those concerns.'
On August 31, Kinder Morgan Canada closed the sale of the Trans Mountain Pipeline to the Government of Canada for C$4.5 billion after it shareholders voted to approve the sale.
In a statement finance minister Bill Morneau said that they are reviewing the decision carefully to 'ensure we are meeting high standards when it comes to both protecting the environment and meeting our obligations to consult with indigenous peoples'.
He said: 'As we have said since the very beginning, building the Trans Mountain expansion project is in the national interest.
'That is why our government made the decision earlier this year to purchase the existing Trans Mountain pipeline, and infrastructure related to the Trans Mountain expansion project.
'We chose to acquire the project because it's a sound investment, and because as a government we can manage risks that, in these particular circumstances, would have been difficult for any private sector company to bear.
'And once we get past those risks, as we have said before, we will work towards transferring the project and related assets to a new owner or owners, in a way that ensures the project's construction and operation will proceed in a manner that protects the public interest.'
The expansion project would nearly triple capacity on an existing line from Edmonton, Alberta, to a port in the Vancouver area for export. It was approved by the federal government in a landmark decision back in 2016.
Genesis Energy has signed an agreement with Silver Creek Midstream to sell its Powder River Basin midstream assets for $300 million.
The assets include Genesis' Powder River Basin pipeline along with the associated crude oil gathering system and rail facility.
Proceeds from the sale will be used by Genesis to reduce the balance outstanding under its revolving credit facility.
Houston-based Genesis Energy's operations include offshore pipeline transportation, onshore facilities & pipeline transportation and marine transportation.
As of Monday, August 27 total oil product stocks in Fujairah stood at 16.156 million barrels – down by 2.5% week on week. Stocks levels fell to a five-month low as inventories declined across all categories.
Stocks of light distillates fell by 3.4% week on week to 5.225 million barrels. Sentiment in the East of Suez petrol market has cooled after the spike seen following the FCC outage at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery two weeks ago. 'Overall [the market] feels less tight now with various refineries getting back to normal,' a Singapore-based trader said. There were some fresh buy tenders from the Middle East that added support to sentiment. Market sources said Kuwait's KPC sought a combination cargo comprising 25,000 mt of 91 RON petrol and 25,000 mt of 95 RON petrol for delivery over September 19-20 to Mina al-Ahmadi in a tender that closed August 28, with same-day validity.
Stocks of middle distillates fell by 5.8% week on week to 3.532 million barrels. Stocks retreated from the year's high seen last week, and swaps time spreads for gasoil have seen a gradual strengthening over the past few weeks. This is indicative of expectations for overall tighter gasoil supply balances heading into September and October. In India, refiners have strategically altered their oil products output to maximise gasoil yields due to attractive margins, but exports could slow during the rest of the year as domestic demand recovers after the monsoon season, S&P Platts reported Wednesday.
Stocks of heavy distillates and residues fell by 17.2% week on week to 7.399 million barrels – a near five-month low. In Fujairah, trade sources said that tighter cargo supply in recent days was still lending support to bunker fuel premiums, while buying sentiment remained steady. Trading activity was quieter last week due to the Eid al-Adha holidays, but Fujairah bunker demand has been rising steadily since the end of July as prices were competitive when compared with Singapore, sources said. Delivered 380 CST bunker prices in Fujairah were assessed at $7/mt above Singapore yesterday, compared to a discount of $9/mt as recently as two weeks ago.
Tallgrass Energy and Drexel Hamilton Infrastructure plan to build a crude oil export storage terminal on the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish.
The terminal is permitted for up to 20 million barrels of crude oil storage and could be fully operational by mid-2020.
The Plaquemines Liquids Terminal is planned as a public-private partnership with multiple deepwater docks along the river to be furnished by Plaquemines Port Harbour & Terminal District. The docking facilities will provide terminal operators with the ability to load and unload larger capacity vessels now using the recently expanded Panama Canal.
It will be fed by a pipeline with the capacity to transport up to 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Cushing, Oklahoma to Louisiana. Tallgrass Energy also plans to build an offshore pipeline extension to give the terminal project the added capability of loading VLCCs.
It is estimated that the pipeline and terminal project will represent a $2.5 billion capital investment.
David G. Dehaemers Jr, president and CEO of Tallgrass Energy, says: 'A public-private partnership is the ideal way to develop a project like the proposed Plaquemines Liquids Terminal. Tallgrass Energy is delighted to have the opportunity to work with the Plaquemines Port Harbour & Terminal District and to contribute positively to the economic health of the parish and the state of Louisiana.'
Plaquemines Port chairman Charlie Burt adds: 'We are an oil and gas parish and it's exciting that some of our job losses on the exploration and production side can be replaced by new facilities that store, blend and export crude oil around the world.'
Zhang Weiliang, CEO of UAV company Avetics Global, explains how the use of drones & automation are increasingly becoming part of the future for tank storage maintenance
The concept of using a drone to inspect a storage tank is a concept often mentioned in the storage industry, and several potential means of implementing the technology have been explored. However, as with all technologies, there is always a risk that an attempt to solve too many problems with a single product would end up as a solution in search of a problem to solve. New technologies are only viable when the technology developer has a thorough understanding of challenges encountered during operations.
Avetics Global, a UAV company with extensive history performing high-detail aerial inspection services for oil majors, building managers and ship owners, has built and optimised a drone with a single objective in mind: to provide high-quality comprehensive coverage of the internal surfaces of a storage tank so that clients can save time, money and workat-height risk when conducting maintenance operations of their assets.
Using the Aquila drone, clients can perform a 100% visual inspection of a tank within a single day, generating high-detail photography of the entire tank inner surface with no interruptions and all archived for easy referencing.
IDENTIFYING THE PROBLEMS
Maintaining the condition of storage tanks is of critical importance to the modern economy. As tank farms get older, the list of things to be checked for expands as well. The consequences of a storage tank failure from contamination, fire, loss or other types of damages can be severe, thus necessitating an expanding list of inspection and maintenance requirements.
With so many potential problems needing to be solved, it has become necessary for asset owners and inspection companies to temper expectations. It becomes clear not all problems are equal in severity, and some problems are more suited to using drones to solve than other issues.
Feedback from tank asset owners has been crucial in identifying which problems require greater attention, as well as the deficiencies of existing solutions. Commercial off the shelf solutions (COTS) provide some benefit to clients, but other problems are introduced as well which ultimately negate the potential utility of said COTS solutions. It is by focusing on those specific problems that Avetics has been able to develop the Aquila in-tank inspection drone.
Built specifically to address these problems, the Avetics Aquila is a semi-autonomous confined-space drone designed to perform internal inspection of oil tanks, representing the culmination of two years of research and development by the Singaporean UAV company.
The Avetics Aquila provides close range visual intelligence at reduced risk to operators, generating an uninterrupted and unobstructed stabilised live feed with position localisation thanks to on-board lasers. Unhindered by radio interference, the Aquila can quickly and safely obtain high quality location-contextualised images in the challenging environment of the inside of the tank.
Avetics has focused on developing a UAV that can deliver an uninterrupted live video feed to the operator on the ground, and the additional benefit from the high-endurance Aquila is that a 100% high-detail inspection of a tank can be conducted within a single day.
Moreover, the images recorded cover the totality of the tank surfaces, offering complete coverage of the tank condition for audit and record keeping.
REAPING IMMEDIATE BENEFITS
By using the Aquila solution, Avetics can entirely reduce the need for erecting scaffolding just to gather information. An inspector can get stabilised, uninterrupted video, and identify areas of key interest. This ability to pinpoint areas requiring attention in such a short timespan means that asset owners can reduce the time needed to shut down the asset to perform maintenance work, increasing overall site utilisation rates as a result.
SOWING FOR THE FUTURE
In this modern technological era, it is easy to get caught up in the exciting possibilities of new technologies. Avetics has leveraged on extensive experience performing UAV engineering and flight services to understand both the limitations of current technology and what is required to overcome said limitations going forward.
As parallel technologies evolve to expand the list of solutions that can be used in conjunction with drones, Avetics has explored the viability of mounting said solutions onto the aircraft.
With the ability to integrate new technologies in-house within the Avetics facility, Avetics can solicit feedback from clients on the potential utility of new technologies either develop in-house or ready to be integrated into current or future versions of the Aquila aircraft.
RESULTS OVER NOVELTY
Cheaper, faster, safer: This is what is commonly heard when new technologies are being rolled out for use within tank terminals. What is often overlooked is ‘as good as current solutions’, for there is no value in a solution with no problem to solve. So long as something already meets those requirements, then it is a solution that can be rolled out immediately.
Focusing only on the idealised end state with a vision of drones and other automation solutions doing everything in the yard will only inhibit the uptake of currently viable technological solutions. In a competitive marketplace with expanding demand for storage solutions and a pressing need to ensure that asset maintenance procedures are carried out in a cost-effective manner, it is in the benefit of asset owners to start reaping the benefits of current technologies.
There is no sense in delaying technological adoption while waiting for the perfect future, when the present technologies already offer great solutions.
Zhang will be speaking on the future of drones at storage terminals on the first day of the Tank Storage Asia conference at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore on September 26 - 27. For more information visist: www.tankstorageasia.com
Total will sell its 26% minority equity stake in Hazira LNG regasification terminal in India to Shell.
Additionally, Total has signed an agreement to sell 0.5 million tonnes of LNG per year to Shell over five years, on a delivery basis to supply the markets of Indian and neighbouring countries. The deliveries will be sourced from Total's global LNG portfolio and are expected to begin in 2019.
Philippe Sauquet, president, gas renewables and power at Total, says: 'This deal enables Total to capture value through an asset disposal, while the LNG sales contract allows us to maintain the balance of our LNG portfolio.
'We remain committed to supply the Indian subcontinent, which is a key market experiencing strong growth in LNG demand.'
India will overtake China as the world's oil demand driver by 2024.
According to Wood Mackenzie, India's oil demand is expected to grow by 3.5 million barrels per day from 2017 to 2035, accounting for one-third of global oil demand growth.
This demand is driven by rising income levels, an expanding middle class and a growing need for mobility.
However, the country only has a project 400,000 b/d of firm refinery capacity addition to 2023, which suggests that supply will fail to keep up with demand growth.
Sushant Gupta, research director at Wood Mackenzie says that Indian public sector undertakings or refineries owned by national oil companies will become short on transport fuels at least until the 1.2 million b/d mega refinery, a JV among India PSUs, Saudi Aramco and ADNOC, comes online.
'We think India would need between 3.2 million b/d and 4.7 million b/d of new capacity out to 2035 to remain self-sufficient in transport fuels. So, we are talking about a future capacity which is 1.7 to 2.0 times the current.
'This is clearly an uphill task, unless domestic refiners can commit to their planned capacity additions.'
However, there are several risks to these new refinery projects, namely uncertainties around oil demand. Factors such as GDP growth, road infrastructure developments, electrification of the transports sector and fuel efficiency improvements, could have very different implications for oil demand.
Crude oil production in the US could surpass the highest record set in 1970 driven by tight oil.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production will average 10.7 million barrels per day in 2018 and 11.7 million b/d in 2019. If both are realised these levels would surpass the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
The Permian region in western Texas and eastern New Mexico is expected to account for more than half of the growth in crude oil production through 2019.
The EIA expects Permian region production to average 3.3 million b/d in 2018 and 3.9 million b/d in 2019. It says: 'Although favourable geology combined with technological and operational improvements have contributed to the Permian region becoming one of the more economically favourable regions for crude oil production in the US, recent pipeline capacity constraints have dampened wellhead prices for the region's oil producers. Lower wellhead prices in the region are contributing to slower growth in Permian crude oil production in 2019 compared with 2018.'
It forecasts that the Bakken region will hit record-high production in 2018, averaging 1.3 million b/d and growing to 1.4 million b/d in 2019. In Eagle Fore it expects production will increase by 105,000 b/d from 2018 to 2019 to average 1.5 million b/d.